Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly predicts President Trump's win over Joe Biden on November 3 with a minimum electoral vote count in the high 270s and possibly even higher, depending on the extent of the undercurrent.
The Georgia-based consulting firm showed Trump in the lead in 3 swing states. recognized as Electoral College battlegrounds - Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, on the eve of 2016 election day, but only a few paid attention.
“I see the president winning with a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said on Fox News.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what [we] refer to as the shy Trump voter,” he said. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment. And so, these people are more hesitant to … participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not trying to give them a poll that they can participate in … you’re not going to get honest answers.”
That epic polling failure has to do with the fact that most polls fail to take into account a key part.
According to Robert Cahaly, the missing part is the "hidden Trump vote", and this is because a number of Trump supporters, especially in swing states are hesitant to share their political opinions on the telephone. This number of secret Trump voters, who aren't being counted, ultimately makes the difference.
Trafalgar Group conducts surveys differently and focuses on battleground states, as Cahaly explains. His group's polls show President Trump ahead of Biden in swing states such as Ohio ( by 4 percentage points), Florida ( by 2 points), North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia, based on October surveys. In these states, most polls show a slight Biden lead or a dead heat.
Although Hunter Biden's overseas dealings are not among the topics up for discussion at the final debate, Cahaly believes that the President could use the attention of a more bipartisan audience to put Joe Biden on the spot. If Biden cracks, then the mainstream media will have to get rid of its "cone of silence".